Gert van Lagen outlines a long-term XRP price scenario tied to a multi-trillion-dollar valuation, using XRP/USD structure and XRP/BTC strength to frame the setup
Market analyst Gert van Lagen is mapping a long-term XRP price scenario near $50, using both XRP’s monthly dollar chart and its historical performance against Bitcoin
His analysis combines a large symmetrical triangle on XRP/USD with a possible recovery in the XRP/BTC ratio toward levels last seen during an earlier market cycle
Van Lagen says the monthly structure could eventually support a move toward $50, which in his model would put XRP’s market capitalization near $3 trillion. However, his chart first requires XRP to preserve the current retest area and continue holding the rising long-term support line
For the XRP/BTC side of the analysis, Van Lagen points to a ratio of 0.00011. If Bitcoin were trading at $450,000 at the same time, that ratio would mathematically put XRP near $49.50, closely matching his $50 projection from the XRP/USD chart
Gert van Lagen’s analysis uses two different charts to arrive at roughly the same long-term XRP outcome. The first looks at XRP in U.S. dollar terms and focuses on a multi-year price structure
The second measures XRP against Bitcoin and asks what the token could be worth if it recovered to a previous XRP/BTC valuation while Bitcoin itself traded much higher
Van Lagen’s first chart stretches back to 2014 and places XRP near $1.50 as of Oct. 6, 2026
The earliest section shows XRP spending several years below a ceiling around $0.03. Price repeatedly failed near that area between 2014 and 2017 before finally breaking through it during the 2017 rally. Once the old ceiling gave way, XRP moved rapidly into a much higher trading range
Van Lagen applies the same resistance-to-support logic to the much larger structure that followed
After XRP’s 2018 peak, the chart shows a broad horizontal resistance area around $2-$2.10. XRP challenged this region during later cycles but failed to establish a lasting move above it
At the same time, a rising trendline developed underneath price from the 2020 low through the higher lows that followed
Those two boundaries gradually compressed price
XRP eventually pushed through the old $2 area during the 2024-2025 advance and traded above $3. The important development now is what happened afterward: instead of continuing straight higher, XRP fell back toward the same zone that had acted as resistance for years
Van Lagen labels the earlier encounters “RESISTANCE” and the more recent interaction “SUPPORT?”
That question mark captures the current setup. At approximately $1.50, XRP is trying to prove that the former ceiling can function as a floor
If the broad $1.20-$2.10 area and the rising long-term trendline continue to hold, the breakout structure remains intact. A decisive move underneath that trendline would weaken the setup because XRP would be moving back into the old multi-year formation rather than building above it
The purple path beginning around 2027 is Van Lagen’s projected bullish continuation, not historical price action
It shows XRP moving quickly out of the current structure, initially reaching roughly the $6-$10 region, consolidating there, and then extending into much higher levels
The later vertical moves reach through areas around $14.50, $21.50, and above $30 before approaching the upper end of the chart. Van Lagen rounds the broader outcome to approximately $50 XRP
This means $50 is not presented as the next resistance level. The chart first requires the current support retest to hold, followed by a new expansion above the previous highs
The second chart approaches the same $50 scenario from a completely different angle
Rather than measuring XRP in dollars, Van Lagen plots XRP against Bitcoin
The chart currently places the XRP/BTC ratio around 0.00002. Its upper horizontal reference sits at 0.00011, an area XRP/BTC reached during its previous major relative-strength cycle
For XRP to return from 0.00002 to 0.00011, the ratio would have to rise by roughly 5.5 times, equivalent to an increase of about 450% against Bitcoin
That is an important distinction. XRP could rise substantially in dollars and still fail to reach Van Lagen’s ratio target if Bitcoin rises just as quickly
His scenario therefore requires XRP to materially outperform BTC
Van Lagen combines the 0.00011 ratio with a hypothetical Bitcoin price of $450,000
That result is effectively his rounded $50 target
It also shows why the Bitcoin assumption matters. At the same XRP/BTC ratio
So the second chart does not independently say XRP must reach $50. It says XRP could trade around $50 if both conditions occur together: Bitcoin reaches roughly $450,000 and XRP/BTC recovers to 0.00011
The historical XRP/BTC chart shows why Van Lagen considers such relative outperformance possible
During the 2017 cycle, XRP gained rapidly against Bitcoin and moved from the lower part of its long-term XRP/BTC range toward the upper boundary
Van Lagen uses that historical move as evidence that XRP has previously repriced against BTC very quickly. However, the earlier move does not establish that the current setup will follow the same timetable
His reference to a rapid 2017 move is therefore a historical comparison, not a prediction that XRP will reach $50 within two months
The interesting part of Van Lagen’s thesis is that the two charts approach the same area through separate methods
The XRP/USD chart says the old multi-year resistance zone may be turning into support and maps a much larger expansion if that retest succeeds
The XRP/BTC chart says a return to 0.00011 BTC per XRP, combined with a $450,000 Bitcoin price, would mathematically put XRP at $49.50
That also explains Van Lagen’s roughly $3 trillion market-cap scenario. At $50 per XRP, a circulating supply around 60 billion tokens would correspond to a valuation close to $3 trillion. That figure represents implied market value, not $3 trillion of cash physically flowing into XRP
For now, though, both long-term arguments depend on a much nearer development: XRP needs to hold the former resistance area as support. If that retest fails, the foundation of Van Lagen’s dollar-chart projection would weaken before the distant $50 scenario ever comes into play
For Van Lagen’s $50 scenario to remain relevant, XRP first has to defend the current long-term structure and eventually resume its advance. The $50 level is therefore the end of the roadmap, not the next immediate price test
