Week Ahead: US CPI, PPI, Fed Chair Warsh, and More | Oct 11 - 17
We have a busy week on the economic calendar, including multiple US inflation readings and IMF appearances by central bank heads. Here is what we are watching in the week ahead:
!Image 1 US CPI - With forecasts showing higher headline inflation and lower core inflation m/m, the market expects a further rise in fuel prices with a softening underlying inflation picture. Will this release give the FOMC evidence that an Oct hold is warranted?
!Image 2 US PPI - This will be the last major inflation reading the Fed gets before the next FOMC meeting. Released alongside US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims, this will be a wild window for USD! Traders will view PPI in the context of the prior day's CPI release.
!Image 3 Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks - Warsh's IMF fireside chat comes just before the FOMC blackout period begins on Oct 17. With no major releases or speeches between this appearance and the FOMC meeting, traders will be watching closely for any final rate path signal.
!Image 4 US Retail Sales - Last month's strong rebound weakened the case for keeping rates on hold. Will consumer spending remain resilient?
!Image 5 AU Employment - The RBA raised rates last month despite unemployment reaching 4.6%. Further labor-market cooling would complicate the case for another hike.
!Image 6 UK GDP - This release will include the Blue Book revisions for the full history. In addition to the headline figure, these revisions could influence traders' view of UK economic strength and the path forward for GBP.
!Image 7 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks - Bailey will speak multiple times in Bangkok this week, but the market's attention will be focused on his second appearance at the IIF meetings. In a panel discussion format, there is room for Bailey to clarify the MPC's position after last month's 6-3 hold.
!Image 8 US Unemployment Claims - Last week saw the fourth straight release under the 200k level. Will we see another strong sub-200k print?
!Image 9 AU Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes - September's move to 4.60% was unanimous. The minutes will offer detail on how the RBA views rising inflation against weaker housing and consumer spending.
Also on the calendar this week: bank holidays in Japan, the US, and Canada.
