Reviewed by Reviewed by Renuka Tahelyani Updated 08:00 EDT October 4, 2026 Share Share Share Back to Top Bitcoin is up 46% from its July low and could reclaim its all-time high (ATH) of $126K by Q1 2027. According to Ecoinometrics, historical drawdowns and recoveries suggest Bitcoin could take 60 to 230 days to reclaim its previous ATH
Assuming the $57.8K low on the 1st of July marked the bottom, the rebound would be approximately three months old. The longer recovery timeline would stretch into February 2027. The research firm added
Bitcoin is currently around 90 days past the bottom and still about 30% below its all-time high. By historical standards, this recovery does not look mature yet. If the trend holds, there is still room for it to develop well into Q1
This is a very aggressive target compared to Citigroup analysts, who expected BTC to hit $113K by Q3/Q4 2027. The asset traded at $85K at press time
On-chain data supported the Ecoinometrics outlook. According to prominent Bitcoin quant analyst Frank Fetter, Bitcoin’s ‘expansion’ phase could kick off in early 2027
The analyst cited the Choppiness Index, which distinguishes sideways conditions from trending markets
Per the attached chart, expansion momentum increases if the Choppiness Index retreats. As of writing, the index was near a peak, and the metric’s pullback would suggest an accelerated BTC expansion phase
Which raises a crucial question: what’s currently delaying the expansion or recovery phase?
Simple answer: the macro landscape, specifically inflation
According to Ecoinmetrics, headline US inflation has been sticky and hasn’t trended down as expected
The Bitcoin setup is improving, but persistent inflation still puts a limit on how aggressively we should lean into it simply because of this looming macro risk
Both US inflation and labor market status inform Fed rate decisions. Last Friday’s jobs report reinforced a cooling labor market and diminished Fed rate hike fears ahead of the FOMC meeting on 28th of October. This sparked a recovery across equity markets, but Bitcoin didn’t join the broader market rebound
Another inflation data release (CPI) scheduled for 14th October would confirm whether the Fed will hold interest rates steady or hike by a quarter point
While inflation has dictated Bitcoin’s demand, the asset has its own factors that have weighed on its recovery
Notably, 2025 top buyers are at break-even and driving the current selling pressure, according to Glassnode
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most coins per day this year. Those who bought the decline are not
As such, $89K and $97K will be key resistance levels that must be cleared for Bitcoin’s expansion phase to extend
Besides, Bitcoin’s overall demand is still negative despite the improved U.S. spot BTC ETF flows in the past few weeks
Overall, Bitcoin’s recovery is still intact, but it must navigate through macro uncertainty and the 2025 top buyers’ dump
Benjamin Njiri is a Crypto Analyst and Reporter at AMBCrypto, specializing in technical analysis and emerging market trends. With a background in Telecoms engineering and power systems, he applies data analysis to filter market noise and decode on-chain data. His work delivers clear, data-driven insights that help readers navigate crypto markets with confidence
