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Ad Home / Price Analysis / Ethereum Price Forecast as Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop on Cooling US Inflation Ethereum Price Forecast as Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop on Cooling US Inflation 30 Sep, 2026 By Muthoni Mary Muthoni Mary
Muthoni Mary is a seasoned crypto market analyst and writer with over three years of experience decoding blockchain trends, price movements, and market dynamics. She holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Commerce (Finance) from Kenyatta University, blending a solid academic foundation with a sharp eye for technical analysis and a deep understanding of on-chain data. Her work delivers clear, data-driven insights that empower investors to navigate the fast-evolving digital asset space with confidence. When she’s not analyzing the markets, Mary enjoys reading and travelling. Read full bio Copied! Why Trust CoinGape CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights to our readers. Our journal analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information. Highlights
Ethereum (ETH) price briefly surged above $2,700 on September 30 before dropping to trade at $2,679 at the time of writing. That initial gain occurred after the US PCE inflation came in lower than expected
The PCE inflation data has now reduced the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates in prediction markets and the CME FedWatch Tool
The crypto market has erased most of the gains made after the US PCE inflation for August 2026 came in at 3.4%, with this being lower than the expected 3.7% as earlier reported by CoinGape
While the PCE inflation print remains above the Fed’s target of 2%, the latest data shows that US inflation is cooling and could reduce the need for the Fed to hike interest rates further
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 25 basis points during the October 28 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have dropped to 34%
CoinGape prediction markets also show that the Fed rate hike odds have fallen from 67% to 34%
This drop is usually bullish for risk assets such as Ethereum. If markets begin to price in the possibility of the Federal Reserve not hiking interest rates at the October FOMC meeting, it could drive gains for Ethereum price
Data from SoSoValue shows that there were $2.81 million in outflows from Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on September 29
This marks the first time that Ethereum ETFs have posted outflows since September 18, with the products also ending their seven-day inflow streak
Ethereum was the only crypto ETF that recorded outflows on September 29, suggesting that demand from institutional investors is becoming weak
Still, Ethereum ETFs have posted $892 million in inflows in September 2026, with this marking the third straight month of inflows for the ETFs
Ethereum price is now sitting above the support at the 200-day EMA of $2,462. When the price is above this EMA, it suggests that the long-term Ethereum price outlook is bullish
Still, ETH price is facing resistance at $2,816. If the largest altcoin can close above this resistance, it could begin another uptrend towards the psychological resistance at $3,000
The AO bars that are green and growing in length suggest that the momentum is favoring bulls, and this could support the upward move
However, if macro pressures weigh on risk assets and cause a sell-off across risk assets, Ethereum price could drop to test the support at $2,500
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1. Why is Ethereum price down despite dropping US inflation?
2. Can Ethereum price reach $3,000 in October 2026?
CoinGape has covered the cryptocurrency industry since 2017, aiming to provide informative insights Read more…to our readers. Our journal analysts bring years of experience in market analysis and blockchain technology to ensure factual accuracy and balanced reporting. By following our Editorial Policy, our writers verify every source, fact-check each story, rely on reputable sources, and attribute quotes and media correctly. We also follow a rigorous Review Methodology when evaluating exchanges and tools. From emerging blockchain projects and coin launches to industry events and technical developments, we cover all facets of the digital asset space with unwavering commitment to timely, relevant information
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