Santiment questions the ADA short-squeeze narrative as Cardano open interest rises to $304 million alongside higher whale activity and fresh leverage
Cardano’s latest rally came with a sharp rise in leverage, complicating the idea that ADA moved higher mainly because shorts were forced out. Santiment data shows open interest climbing to $304 million by Oct. 5, its highest daily close since at least early April, even as ADA gained roughly 10% over two days
ADA closed near $0.244 on Oct. 3 and $0.270 on Oct. 5, a gain of about 11% across the period
The price move was strong, but the derivatives data moved even faster
Santiment’s six-hour chart shows open interest climbing alongside ADA rather than falling during the rally
Dollar-denominated open interest rose by roughly 25% from Oct. 3 to Oct. 5, reaching about $304 million. That matters because a straightforward short squeeze usually involves traders closing short positions, which reduces open interest
There is one catch: part of the dollar increase could simply come from ADA itself becoming more expensive
Santiment adjusted for that by looking at open interest in ADA terms. On that basis, outstanding positions still increased by approximately 13%
That points to genuine growth in positioning rather than a price-only effect. In other words, more leveraged exposure was being built while ADA climbed
The data does not completely rule out a squeeze
Funding reached its most negative level in a month on Oct. 2, showing that positioning had leaned toward shorts before the rally. Funding then moved back into positive territory as ADA advanced
Some bearish positions may therefore have been forced or encouraged to close
But rising aggregate open interest means new positions were being added at the same time. So the move looks less like a simple purge of shorts and more like short covering occurring alongside fresh leverage
That distinction becomes important if ADA starts to reverse. Higher leverage can amplify both continuation and downside moves when positions become crowded
Santiment counted 413 transactions worth at least $100,000 on Oct. 5, about 2.2 times the weekday average measured between Sept. 7 and Oct. 2
Social volume did not increase nearly as much. It stood at only about 1.1 times its comparison-period baseline
That gap suggests large-value activity accelerated much faster than public discussion around Cardano
For now, the data points to a rally that attracted fresh positioning rather than one driven only by traders covering shorts. The next test is whether ADA can hold its recent gains while open interest remains elevated, or whether the added leverage starts to unwind
